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AllenDowney committed Aug 31, 2024
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10 changes: 10 additions & 0 deletions _sources/bayes_dice.ipynb
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"You can order print and ebook versions of *Think Bayes 2e* from\n",
"[Bookshop.org](https://bookshop.org/a/98697/9781492089469) and\n",
"[Amazon](https://amzn.to/334eqGo)."
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10 changes: 10 additions & 0 deletions _sources/beta_binomial.ipynb
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"[Bookshop.org](https://bookshop.org/a/98697/9781492089469) and\n",
"[Amazon](https://amzn.to/334eqGo)."
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10 changes: 10 additions & 0 deletions _sources/bookstore.ipynb
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"You can order print and ebook versions of *Think Bayes 2e* from\n",
"[Bookshop.org](https://bookshop.org/a/98697/9781492089469) and\n",
"[Amazon](https://amzn.to/334eqGo)."
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10 changes: 10 additions & 0 deletions _sources/hospital.ipynb
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"You can order print and ebook versions of *Think Bayes 2e* from\n",
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"[Amazon](https://amzn.to/334eqGo)."
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10 changes: 10 additions & 0 deletions _sources/hospital_birth_rate.ipynb
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"[Amazon](https://amzn.to/334eqGo)."
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10 changes: 10 additions & 0 deletions _sources/ok.ipynb
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"[Amazon](https://amzn.to/334eqGo)."
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10 changes: 10 additions & 0 deletions _sources/radiation.ipynb
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"[Amazon](https://amzn.to/334eqGo)."
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10 changes: 10 additions & 0 deletions _sources/redline_pymc.ipynb
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"[Amazon](https://amzn.to/334eqGo)."
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10 changes: 10 additions & 0 deletions _sources/sister.ipynb
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"[Amazon](https://amzn.to/334eqGo)."
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10 changes: 10 additions & 0 deletions _sources/usb.ipynb
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"[Amazon](https://amzn.to/334eqGo)."
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10 changes: 10 additions & 0 deletions _sources/vaccine2.ipynb
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"[Amazon](https://amzn.to/334eqGo)."
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5 changes: 4 additions & 1 deletion bayes_dice.html
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Expand Up @@ -374,7 +374,10 @@ <h2> Contents </h2>
<div id="searchbox"></div>
<article class="bd-article" role="main">

<section id="bayesian-dice">
<p>You can order print and ebook versions of <em>Think Bayes 2e</em> from
<a class="reference external" href="https://bookshop.org/a/98697/9781492089469">Bookshop.org</a> and
<a class="reference external" href="https://amzn.to/334eqGo">Amazon</a>.</p>
<section id="bayesian-dice">
<h1>Bayesian Dice<a class="headerlink" href="#bayesian-dice" title="Permalink to this heading">#</a></h1>
<p><a class="reference external" href="https://colab.research.google.com/github/AllenDowney/ThinkBayes2/blob/master/examples/bayes_dice.ipynb">Click here to run this notebook on Colab</a></p>
<p>I’ve been enjoying Aubrey Clayton’s new book <a class="reference external" href="https://aubreyclayton.com/bernoulli"><em>Bernoulli’s Fallacy</em></a>. Chapter 1, which is about the historical development of competing definitions of probability, is worth the price of admission alone.</p>
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5 changes: 4 additions & 1 deletion beta_binomial.html
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Expand Up @@ -379,7 +379,10 @@ <h2> Contents </h2>
<div id="searchbox"></div>
<article class="bd-article" role="main">

<section id="the-all-knowing-cube-of-probability">
<p>You can order print and ebook versions of <em>Think Bayes 2e</em> from
<a class="reference external" href="https://bookshop.org/a/98697/9781492089469">Bookshop.org</a> and
<a class="reference external" href="https://amzn.to/334eqGo">Amazon</a>.</p>
<section id="the-all-knowing-cube-of-probability">
<h1>The All-Knowing Cube of Probability<a class="headerlink" href="#the-all-knowing-cube-of-probability" title="Permalink to this heading">#</a></h1>
<blockquote>
<div><p>This example uses array computations to explore the concept of conjugate distributions.
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5 changes: 4 additions & 1 deletion bookstore.html
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Expand Up @@ -373,7 +373,10 @@ <h2> Contents </h2>
<div id="searchbox"></div>
<article class="bd-article" role="main">

<section id="how-many-books">
<p>You can order print and ebook versions of <em>Think Bayes 2e</em> from
<a class="reference external" href="https://bookshop.org/a/98697/9781492089469">Bookshop.org</a> and
<a class="reference external" href="https://amzn.to/334eqGo">Amazon</a>.</p>
<section id="how-many-books">
<h1>How Many Books?<a class="headerlink" href="#how-many-books" title="Permalink to this heading">#</a></h1>
<p>Suppose you are the author of a book like <em>Probably Overthinking It</em>, and when you visit a local bookstore, like Newtonville Books in Newton, MA, you see that they have two copies of your book on display.</p>
<p>Is it good that they have only a few copies, because it suggests they started with more and sold some? Or is it bad because it suggests they only keep a small number in stock, and they have not sold. More generally, what number of books would you like to see?</p>
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5 changes: 4 additions & 1 deletion hospital.html
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Expand Up @@ -379,7 +379,10 @@ <h2> Contents </h2>
<div id="searchbox"></div>
<article class="bd-article" role="main">

<section id="grid-algorithms-for-hierarchical-models">
<p>You can order print and ebook versions of <em>Think Bayes 2e</em> from
<a class="reference external" href="https://bookshop.org/a/98697/9781492089469">Bookshop.org</a> and
<a class="reference external" href="https://amzn.to/334eqGo">Amazon</a>.</p>
<section id="grid-algorithms-for-hierarchical-models">
<h1>Grid algorithms for hierarchical models<a class="headerlink" href="#grid-algorithms-for-hierarchical-models" title="Permalink to this heading">#</a></h1>
<p>Copyright 2021 Allen B. Downey</p>
<p>License: <a class="reference external" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)</a></p>
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5 changes: 4 additions & 1 deletion hospital_birth_rate.html
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Expand Up @@ -363,7 +363,10 @@ <h1>Comparing birth rates</h1>
<div id="searchbox"></div>
<article class="bd-article" role="main">

<section id="comparing-birth-rates">
<p>You can order print and ebook versions of <em>Think Bayes 2e</em> from
<a class="reference external" href="https://bookshop.org/a/98697/9781492089469">Bookshop.org</a> and
<a class="reference external" href="https://amzn.to/334eqGo">Amazon</a>.</p>
<section id="comparing-birth-rates">
<h1>Comparing birth rates<a class="headerlink" href="#comparing-birth-rates" title="Permalink to this heading">#</a></h1>
<p><a class="reference external" href="https://colab.research.google.com/github/AllenDowney/ThinkBayes2/blob/master/examples/hospital_birth_rate.ipynb">Run this notebook on Colab</a></p>
<p>Here’s an exercise that was in a draft of <em>Think Bayes</em>, but I ended up cutting it.</p>
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5 changes: 4 additions & 1 deletion ok.html
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Expand Up @@ -376,7 +376,10 @@ <h2> Contents </h2>
<div id="searchbox"></div>
<article class="bd-article" role="main">

<section id="how-many-typos">
<p>You can order print and ebook versions of <em>Think Bayes 2e</em> from
<a class="reference external" href="https://bookshop.org/a/98697/9781492089469">Bookshop.org</a> and
<a class="reference external" href="https://amzn.to/334eqGo">Amazon</a>.</p>
<section id="how-many-typos">
<h1>How Many Typos?<a class="headerlink" href="#how-many-typos" title="Permalink to this heading">#</a></h1>
<p>When I started work at <a class="reference external" href="https://brilliant.org">Brilliant</a> a couple of weeks ago, I learned that one of my new colleagues, Michelle McSweeney, just published <a class="reference external" href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/58380165-ok">a book called <em>OK</em></a>, which is all about the word OK.</p>
<p>As we discussed the joys and miseries of publishing, Michelle mentioned that she had found a typo in the book after publication.
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5 changes: 4 additions & 1 deletion radiation.html
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Expand Up @@ -378,7 +378,10 @@ <h2> Contents </h2>
<div id="searchbox"></div>
<article class="bd-article" role="main">

<section id="the-emitter-detector-problem">
<p>You can order print and ebook versions of <em>Think Bayes 2e</em> from
<a class="reference external" href="https://bookshop.org/a/98697/9781492089469">Bookshop.org</a> and
<a class="reference external" href="https://amzn.to/334eqGo">Amazon</a>.</p>
<section id="the-emitter-detector-problem">
<h1>The Emitter-Detector Problem<a class="headerlink" href="#the-emitter-detector-problem" title="Permalink to this heading">#</a></h1>
<p><a class="reference external" href="https://colab.research.google.com/github/AllenDowney/ThinkBayes2/blob/master/examples/radiation.ipynb">Click here to run this notebook on Colab</a></p>
<section id="modeling-a-radiation-sensor">
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5 changes: 4 additions & 1 deletion redline_pymc.html
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Expand Up @@ -382,7 +382,10 @@ <h2> Contents </h2>
<div id="searchbox"></div>
<article class="bd-article" role="main">

<section id="the-red-line-problem">
<p>You can order print and ebook versions of <em>Think Bayes 2e</em> from
<a class="reference external" href="https://bookshop.org/a/98697/9781492089469">Bookshop.org</a> and
<a class="reference external" href="https://amzn.to/334eqGo">Amazon</a>.</p>
<section id="the-red-line-problem">
<h1>The Red Line Problem<a class="headerlink" href="#the-red-line-problem" title="Permalink to this heading">#</a></h1>
<p>This example is based on an exercise from <a class="reference external" href="https://greenteapress.com/wp/think-bayes/">Think Bayes, 2nd edition</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
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2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion searchindex.js

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5 changes: 4 additions & 1 deletion sister.html
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Expand Up @@ -377,7 +377,10 @@ <h2> Contents </h2>
<div id="searchbox"></div>
<article class="bd-article" role="main">

<section id="the-left-handed-sister-problem">
<p>You can order print and ebook versions of <em>Think Bayes 2e</em> from
<a class="reference external" href="https://bookshop.org/a/98697/9781492089469">Bookshop.org</a> and
<a class="reference external" href="https://amzn.to/334eqGo">Amazon</a>.</p>
<section id="the-left-handed-sister-problem">
<h1>The Left Handed Sister Problem<a class="headerlink" href="#the-left-handed-sister-problem" title="Permalink to this heading">#</a></h1>
<p>Suppose you meet someone who looks like the brother of your friend Mary.
You ask if he has a sister named Mary, and he says “Yes I do, but I don’t think I know you.”</p>
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5 changes: 4 additions & 1 deletion usb.html
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Expand Up @@ -379,7 +379,10 @@ <h2> Contents </h2>
<div id="searchbox"></div>
<article class="bd-article" role="main">

<section id="flipping-usb-connectors">
<p>You can order print and ebook versions of <em>Think Bayes 2e</em> from
<a class="reference external" href="https://bookshop.org/a/98697/9781492089469">Bookshop.org</a> and
<a class="reference external" href="https://amzn.to/334eqGo">Amazon</a>.</p>
<section id="flipping-usb-connectors">
<h1>Flipping USB Connectors<a class="headerlink" href="#flipping-usb-connectors" title="Permalink to this heading">#</a></h1>
<p>This notebook is one of the examples in the second edition of <a class="reference external" href="https://greenteapress.com/wp/think-bayes/"><em>Think Bayes</em></a>.</p>
<p><a class="reference external" href="https://colab.research.google.com/github/AllenDowney/ThinkBayes2/blob/master/examples/usb.ipynb">Click here to run this notebook on Colab</a>.</p>
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5 changes: 4 additions & 1 deletion vaccine2.html
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Expand Up @@ -373,7 +373,10 @@ <h2> Contents </h2>
<div id="searchbox"></div>
<article class="bd-article" role="main">

<section id="estimating-vaccine-efficacy">
<p>You can order print and ebook versions of <em>Think Bayes 2e</em> from
<a class="reference external" href="https://bookshop.org/a/98697/9781492089469">Bookshop.org</a> and
<a class="reference external" href="https://amzn.to/334eqGo">Amazon</a>.</p>
<section id="estimating-vaccine-efficacy">
<h1>Estimating vaccine efficacy<a class="headerlink" href="#estimating-vaccine-efficacy" title="Permalink to this heading">#</a></h1>
<p>In a recent vaccine trial, no one in the vaccinated group got the disease, so the makers of the vaccine reported that it is 100% effective. Of course, nothing in the real world is 100% effective, so this example raises a question: how do we estimate efficacy when the number of cases is 0?</p>
<p>In this article, I present a Bayesian way to answer this question – and the answer turns out to be about 94%.</p>
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