Project: predict match-level win/loss outcome at 2019 ADCC.
The ADCC Championship happens every two years and is considered the Olympics of submission grappling. The 2019 event concluded with a bang in September and crowned some new and some veteran champions. As an exercise in data science, I thought it would be fun to take the results and see how accurate a machine learning model could predict if a match would end in a win or loss.
Two notebooks and accompanying data. One notebook for the exploratory data analysis and another on model prediction. With the given data, a tuned Logistic Regression model was selected and produced a 70% accuracy score.
Blog Articles on what this means for Brazilian Jiu Jitsu
- Part 1: ADCC Championship: Can We Predict the Winners? https://bjjdatabyriggs.blogspot.com/2019/10/part-1-adcc-championship-can-we-predict.html
- Part 2: ADCC Championship: We Can Predict the Winners, But Only 70% of the Time https://bjjdatabyriggs.blogspot.com/2019/12/part-2-adcc-championship-can-we-predict.html
Limitation: More data on experience and better cleaning on fighter data would enhance this project.